Experts: Uk Variant Becoming Dominant In Japan
A Japanese research institute predicts that the UK variant of the coronavirus will account for more than 80 percent of cases in Tokyo and its surrounding areas by early May.
The National Institute of Infectious Diseases made the prediction on Tuesday based on the results of tests for coronavirus variants.
The institute says the UK variant called N501Y, which was first detected in Britain, is 1.32 times as transmissible as the original virus in terms of the number of people who can be infected by one person.
It says cases of the UK variant have been increasing in Tokyo and its three neighboring prefectures since the middle of March.
It says that the share of the variant was about 10 percent in early April and this is expected to reach 80 to 90 percent by early May.
In Osaka and two nearby prefectures, cases of the UK variant began soaring in February and are believed to have made up the majority of infections by the end of March. The institute estimates that the ratio of the variant has now risen to 80 percent from the estimate of about 75 percent earlier this month. The ratio is expected to hit almost 100 percent by the end of next month.
The institute predicts a majority of the coronavirus cases in four prefectures in central Japan and Okinawa will probably be of the UK type by early next month.
In Britain, cases of the variant have shot up since last October. By February and March, all cases in the country are believed to have been caused by the UK variant.
The head of the institute, Suzuki Motoi, says at the current pace, the UK variant is expected to account for a majority of cases in Japan by the first half of May.
He added that the prediction could be revised as it does not take account of changes resulting from anti-infection measures, including possible reductions in the movement of people.