Nhk: Ruling Coalition Certain To Secure Enough Seats To Maintain Its Force
NHK's decision desk is already projecting that the ruling coalition is certain to secure enough seats to maintain its force and keep a majority in the Upper House.
We expect Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner, Komeito, will take more than half of the seats up for grabs.
And we expect that parties in favor of amending the Constitution will surpass a threshold for starting the process to propose a change.
As for the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party is expected to lose seats.
NHK's exit polls and analysis suggest the LDP and Komeito will end the night with a combined total of 69 to 83 seats. That's once you add in representatives still in the middle of their term. The coalition is certain to maintain its strength.
Here's where the LDP stands on its own.
The party is expected to come out of the election with between 59 and 69 seats. That means there is a chance that it will reach 63 seats -- half of what's up for grabs tonight -- even without the help of its coalition partner.
The main opposition party, the CDP, is certain to shrink to between 13 and 20 seats.
The LDP's junior partner, Komeito, will likely control 10 to 14 seats.
And another member of the opposition, Nippon Ishin Japan Innovation Party, will likely expand its force, to between 10 and 15 seats.
NHK projects the ruling coalition and two other parties in favor of making some sort of amendment are likely to end up with between 86 and 102 seats.
That means their combined total will surpass two-thirds. That's the level of support needed in both houses to put a proposal to a national referendum.